The Silent Threat: How Demographic Shifts Fuels Disaster Risk Creation in Informal Settlements, a Case of Nairobi, Kenya

Rapid urbanization in African cities has accelerated the expansion of informal settlements into risk prone land, increasing exposure to climate related hazards such as flooding. While the Disaster Risk Creation framework emphasizes the socio political processes that generate vulnerability, limited research examines how demographic transitions interact with governance systems to shape climate risk.



This paper investigates how demographic change contributes to the creation of flood risk in informal settlements in Nairobi. Using secondary demographic data, policy analysis, and spatial review of settlement expansion, the study examines population growth, rural to urban migration, and urban expansion into flood prone land. It analyses how gaps between national policy, metropolitan planning, and local implementation influence settlement patterns and exposure to risk.



Findings show that demographic pressures combined with weak multi level governance, limited land access, and inadequate infrastructure produce cumulative vulnerability in informal areas, highlighting the need for demographically informed urban policy and participatory governance approaches for resilient development